The author of the bestseller The Art of the Long View forecasts the inevitable surprises that will shape the business world of tomorrow.
The world we live in today is more volatile than ever. The security of free nations is threatened by rogue states, the global economy is in flux, and the rapid advance of technology forces constant reevaluation of our society. With so many powerful forces at work and seemingly unpredictable events occurring, to many the future seems dark, and its possibilities frightening.
Peter Schwartz disagrees. A world-renowned visionary in the field of scenario planning, Schwartzs startlingand accurate predictions have been employed by government agencies and major corporations for more than twenty-five years. He argues that the future is foreseeable, and that by examining the dynamics at work today we can predict the inevitable surprises of tomorrow.
Timely and thought-provoking, Inevitable Surprises is a book that no one with an interest in businessor the future of our societycan afford to miss.
Customer Reviews
Nowhere does Schwartz say that the US is a rogue superpower:
David Taylor got it all wrong. Being European, I actually felt a little pro-American bias about the book…but not much. Nowhere did Schwartz say that the US is a rogue superpower. What he says is that there is a “growing distaste” of the US as a “rogue superpower”, and this is a fact and not a biased opinion. It is not even an opinion at all.
good ideas about the future:
If you think the future is predictable, read this book. The author seems rather pessimistic about the future, especially considering his earlier book, The Long Boom.
The future in parallel permutations:
I got this book, Inevitable Surprises, written by Peter Schwartz, because the one that I was looking for (the Art of the Long View) was not available at that time. The author’s works have been recommended to me by a close friend of mine, so I made little hesitation before picking this one up.
He wrote about different aspects of the global society, and predicting trends (trends, not events. He’s not psychic) for the following 30 years from 2003. Many of these trends have already happened, or happened long before, despite many obvious major events that happened shortly before the time of its publication.
Although a good portion of his “scenarios” are not so upbeat, (e.g., the rest of the world pulling the plug on Africa, and new radical groups, new diseases) they are already taking place. I personally will not deem his book pessimatic, but realistic. They are simply results of human nature, and its interactions between one another, nothing more.
Even though he had a technical background (aeronautic engineering), his discussion on technogical advances a little too optimistic. Being (or was until recently) an engineer by trade, I still think that, as promising are new technologies may be, such as quantum computing and space travel, it would take more than 30 years before such technologies become prominent.
There is still a pretty subtle indication, that Schwartz may not fare well with the Arab nations. Some of his comments, albeit still very neutral and professional, tilts slightly to the negative whenever he touches this particular subject. The reasons are likely his own, and I will not speculate any further.
This is a good book to pick up, if you are looking for the driving forces of the present and near future, and would like to know how they interact, which is the basis of scenario planning, a subject of his “claim-to-fame” book, the Art of the Long View. After reading both books, I tend to think “Long View” as the book on concepts (in scenario planning) and Inevitasble surprises as the one of its machinery. Both works should be read simultaneously.
P.S. - Regarding the “technical error” made by a certain reviewer, METHANE IS A FUEL, and it is often referred to as NATURAL GAS, which is about 94% methane by mass. I can go for miles, but it will be quite off topic.
Packed with Knowledge!:
Change is no news. The great changes that will alter the commercial, political and demographic workings of the world are already underway and some of their consequences are quite predictable, says author Peter Schwartz. He outlines a variety of the more important changes, particularly in places such as China and India, and limns scenarios that represent possible futures. Perhaps this sort of book is inevitable at the turning of a century, of a millennium. The author, in fact, compares his work to predecessors at the end of the nineteenth century. Although some of his predictions fall far short of shocking - for example, global warming and aging populations are hardly undiscovered issues - the exercise of thinking about scenarios and preparing strategies is a good one. The book is also entertaining, because Schwartz writes with a light hand and a casual style. We believe this book would be a good airplane read. It would certainly be appropriate for a long flight, since air travel contributes to some of the more important changes the author discusses. And, if you read it, the time will fly.
Alternatives to denial & defensiveness before massive change:
Since the future isn’t what it used to be and only seems to get stranger by the day, Peter Schwartz’s latest book should be a welcome guide to the “inevitable surprises” ahead. Schwartz isn’t just any futurist; he’s a kingpin at the Global Business Network and frequently consults to governments and large corporations. Schwartz argues that many of the big surprises ahead can be foreseen if we use scenario thinking to closely examining existing signs. With this point as well as in some details - such as the impact of shrinking populations - Schwartz is in accord with Peter Drucker. This book lays out the dramatic transformation and volatility we face over the next quarter century. The book’s scope is wide enough that everyone is likely to find themselves startled and stimulated.
In case you read Schwartz’s previous work and wonder whether he still believes in “The Long Boom”, the answer is an undeniable and unashamed *yes!* Productivity and accelerating technological advances will return the economy to a long-term path of strong growth. This doesn’t mean that Schwartz paints a pastel portrait of the future. We can expect a cleaner environment and opportunities in abundance, but must also anticipate massive migrations of people, declining populations in large parts of the Western world, a confusing and unruly international situation, global climate crises, plagues, and possibly an asteroid strike. Study this book, challenge Schwartz’s thinking, and prepare yourself and your business for a wild ride ahead.
Schwartz believes that his forecasts and scenarios will stand up to the test of future history better than those of most prognosticators. The reason is that, in the grand tradition of “predetermined elements” in scenario planning, he is drawing out the implications of events that have already happened. Many of the big surprises are, in fact, inevitable. So why are we continually caught off guard? Schwartz pins the blame on our tendency as decision makers to react to the drivers of change either with denial or defensiveness. Neither kind of response is effective and both are “fundamentally irresponsible” as Schwartz puts it. In this book, he aims to help us understand the kinds of inevitable surprises lying ahead, and to suggest steps that organizations can take to thrive.
In the author’s view, humanity faces greater challenges now than ever before. At the same time we have greater capabilities than ever before. Our greatest challenge is “to master our own accelerating power, without being swept away by it.” Along with a few other well-grounded futurists, Schwartz has laid down a challenge along with weapons for tackling the future. Inevitably, most readers will read this book and find it both informative and engaging but few will incorporate the resulting ideas for action into their plans. When it comes to these large-scale shifts, *doing* has always been disadvantaged compared to *denial* and *defensiveness*. Being proven wrong about this would be a surprise but, alas, not an inevitable surprise.
