Predicting the future is notoriously difficult. But systematic analysis leads to clearer understanding and wiser decisions. Thinking about the future also makes social scientists focus their research into the past and present more fruitfully, with more attention to key predictors of change.
This book considers how we might think intelligently about the future. Taking different methodological approaches, well-known specialists forecast likely future developments and trends in human life. The questions they address include: How many humans will there be? Will there be enough energy? How will climate change affect our lives? What patterns of work will exist? How will government work at the local, national, and world level? Will inflation remain under control? Why have past forecasts been so bad? The book concludes with a discussion of the intellectual and historical context of futurology and a look at the accuracy of predictions that were made for the year 2000.
Customer Reviews
Interesting but erratic:
Within this book, you have some excellent and also really poor material.
For instance, one chapter about estimating population growth is very good. It is objective. It details the assumptions, and explain why forecasting population growth is associated with a high level of uncertainty.
Another chapter on the future of energy consumption is really bad. It is a not so disguised subjective infomercial about alternative energy. Although promoting the use of alternative energy is really laudable, it should not be confused with objective and integer forecasting simulation. This one chapter should have never made it within this book in its existing form.
Insightful!:
You might expect that a book edited by professors of economics at Harvard and the London School of Economics would come in on the dry side. Nothing could be further from the truth with regard to What the Future Holds, a compelling compilation of possible future scenarios written by experts in population, climate, energy, labor, government, monetary policy and information. The enlightening details about scenario planning are an added bonus that we from getAbstract believe will be especially relevant to any business or government decision makers.
