Ray Kurzweil has drawn a different conclusion than Moore himself has and sees a long-term pattern of accelerating change as a generalization of Moore’s Law. He predicts that the fact that we will not be able to make transistors that are smaller than an atom will not lead to the end of the acceleration of change. He simple states that a new technology will replace the integrated-circuit technology as that replaced the transistor-based machines, that replaced the vacuum tube computer, etc.
However that might be true, that doesn’t mean that you can still extrapolate Moore’s prediction to say that the rate of change will stay the same. What Kurzweil is predicting is such a dramatic change that it will not only change the technology, but the entire paradigm we currently live in. I believe that will happen either way. The true question is whether we are in the crisis that will precede such a change already or that we still need to enter it?
Ervin Laszlo has created a visual depiction of the waves that we go through before we enter that crisis that will lead to the new paradigm. Consider this graph and ask yourself the question: where are we now? 
What if we’ve had the feeling for years now, that we’ve been living in a time of rapid changes. A time in which everyone feels lost, because change happens so fast. Like…the accelerated speed of the amount of transistors doubling every two years. And what if, that development will come to an end in a decade or so? Then maybe we are working our way up towards the last ‘wave’ of Laszlo’s graph. And in that case we will be entering a phase of ‘crisis’ within 15 years in which everything we’ve come to know will change in ways, we even can’t begin to understand.
So, yes, we might be entering a time that will be known as the end of revolutions, but only for a short period of time. Because a true revolution will follow…somewhere between 2015 and 2025…
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You are very right, some short remarks:
Moore’s law is often used to explain the doubling of IT-power each and every year. The underlying reason is the ‘transistor’ but a new technology like Kurzweil is describing might be transistor-less but that doesn’t mean that the exponential growth will stop… It is a big question what this new wave of tech will do in comparison to the traditional ICT tech, and what its ramp-up will be? Like the new internet-wave technology which outperforms IP… we should shift immidiately… a hundredfold more capacity over current networks? Why not?… but than again, can you imagine the whole world shifting away from Internet Protocol? That won’t happen before 2025. What I mean to say is that we are at the end of a ICT cycle and therefor thew pace of new revolutions will decrease… the new ICT-cylce will come and bring new revolutions… but that wave is still in the early tech phase and it will last far beyond 2020 before it will enter the consumer space?
That doesn’t mean we won’t have revolutions… we will have plenty… they are moreover cultural and social revolutions, enabled by tech, but not lead by technology.
Had to think for a bit about an answer, but your remarks made me think of the following:
It’s the legacy of our past that is keeping us from ‘jumping’ to such new technologies as internet-wave technology: we are now all using IP and we have had our copper cables in the ground, so a switch goes to great expense. But how about those regions that are lacking those ‘old’ infrastructures. For them to adopt such new technologies is not a ’switch’ from something old, for them it is a new start.
So, could it be that we are looking in the wrong direction for these technological revolutions? Maybe we are coming to the end of the West (or Core) leading the way. Maybe the age of the periphery and semi-periphery is about to happen and the power will finally shift to the bottom of the pyramid. And although there might be some different hurdles to overcome in those regions (indeed cultural and social change might be needed there as well), is it possible for them to leapfrog to a completely different base that will outperform our infrastructure, before 2025? Will that ignite a new revolution not enabled by technology, but lead by technology?