Are emerging regions also emerging powers?
Emerging regions have in common, their economic performance and rising political power, both Multilateral as well as regional. Emerging regions face a challenge to balance global, regional and local agendas. Emerging regions have to make this tough decision since there is hardly any incentive for 1st world companies to develop solutions for southern problems, take malaria for example. An example of this dualism in economic politics are TRIPs (Trade Related Intellectual Property):
A. To focus on North-South relations and for example to change legislation for the protection of IP as stated by the WTO. This could create profits for domestic companies in the biotech or pharmacy sector.
B. To focus on South-South relations and adapt IP legislation so that new medicines (for example HIV related) can easily be shared between other emerging regions.
Social context is key not universalism
For all emerging regions, regional leadership is crucial to grow from periphery to semi-periphery and to become both an economical and political hub in the global network. Part of this leadership is that the semi-periphery form an example for other developing regions, but the several emerging regions (like BRICSAI) have a very different cultural background and regional setting so several models are under construction to answer the question: “What internal order do you want?”. Emerging regions can be seen as political laboratories with many social experiments with activities that will shape the world of tomorrow.
This regional leadership needs to be handled with care since many developing regions fear regional hegemonies. Therefor all emerging stated need to be seen in a social context. India for example is very unequal per definition cause of the (KAST)-system deeply rooted in their culture, making a claim for universalism (even Human rights) by the West very difficult. his creates specific inclusive and exclusive dynamics which need to be taken into account when judging or interpreting their growth and accompanying behavior and politics. So especially BRIC is just a category of states with a enormous population and strong economic growth, they do not form any cultural, social, economical, military or political unity.
Access to the power-league
Brazil was once before a leading state in the international system. Back in the sixties they develop both economic as well as military power with an enormous arms industry and even a nuclear program. Now almost 50 years later Brazil is re-building its power. It has no angry neighbors (like India does) but is again investing heavily in arms. For purely defensive intends they state. Brazil has almost the same footprint on land as in sea and especially the latter (but also the amazon) holds all the precious resources like oil. They recently extend their nuclear program towards building their own nuclear-powered submarine (the engines, not the missiles was emphasized). To the opinion of Brazil, they can remain more autonomy in the international system if the South develops its own arms-industry. Nuclear-energy is also used in three nuclear-power plants which are provisioned by the largest Uranium mines in the world. An example of the regional leadership role Brazil wants to play is the close military cooperation with Argentina. Eg. Argentina is allowed to use Brazils aircraft-carrier-ships. This shows their non-agresive intends but one might worry what is left of that when Brazil gets it seat back at the table with the big boys (like UN security council).
Brazil does view a modern nuclear arsenal as a power-currency, on one side it boosts self-esteem on the other side its the only way to prevent an invasion by another super-power. To become a world-leader one needs to be player in the Global Nuclear order. Unthought SDI (the space program for defense against missiles) is now a add-on to that league. The access to nuclear arms and soon also the availability of a space-shield will create a military power divide in the international system. To show an example of how the social-context can differ per region, South-Africa is trying to get rid of their ‘culture of arms’. Conflict increases the demand for weapons and weapons increase the surge of conflicts… the result: massive poverty.
North-South relations: Exclusive or inclusive
In the North-South relation, too many international arrangement try to tell the South “What to do”. They don’t except the countries and their social contexts. The big question remains will emerging powers differentiate to outpace each other (in favor of their own model) or will they join forces. One thing is clear all emerging regions are seeking their own identity in the international system to seek recognition (external) and confidence (internal). Every emerging region wants to be unique and to prosper on their own power but they can and will leverage on knowhow to not replicate mistakes and not to become trapped in a power-game with the ‘North’.
The power of power?
But what is Power really after WOII? The Power of Power has deflated and the uni-polar world is making place for a multi-lateral system which needs to deal with a diverse architecture of institutes (varying from UN to regional trade-organizations). The stability of their multi-lateral system will be largely dependent on Justice and Inclusion of both States was well as citizens? How scalable is the current international system? Will the G7 turn into a G13 or hand over its role to a UN-like model? Will uni-polar turn into bi-polar again or even multi-polar or is multi-lateral really possible with all these different paces of development and social contexts? The real answer to this question lays in the capability of countries to stabilize the three agendas: Global, Regional and local aspirations.
Global governance and ethical leadership
In this transformation of the international system, India, South-Africa and Brazil can by international moderators without principal, meaning they haven’t chosen for a specific ideology. This can be seen as good (no clash of ideologies and systems) but also as bad, like the trade-relation with those regions with the human-rights violating Sudan for example. The fall of American power is an easy thing to say, but to determine how we can institutionalize global governance in such an interdependent world? For example is there a Human Rights police? Not just to promote Human rights, but even to protect them, even when it means interfering in internal affairs?
The south is clearly driven by politics of hope, unleashing the aspiration of its citizens, companies and neighboring states to built an inclusive international system. But will they stick to this ambition when the first seats open up at the big-boys table? And is the recognition for their newly develop powers enough are does the periphery want gratification by the core for ‘their deeds of the past’?
Source: Globalisation event, de balie, spokesmen: Pratap Bhanu Mehta, Nozizwe Madlala-Routledge and Alcides Costa Vaz.
