The prevailing view of China is that the country is an economic juggernaut sure to become the dominant power of the twenty-first century. In this provocative and stimulating book critically acclaimed author Will Hutton warns instead that China is running up against a set of daunting challenges from within its own political and economic system that could well derail its rise, leading to a massive shock to the global economy. The United States, he argues, must recognize that it has a vital stake in working to assure this doesn’t happen, for if China’s political liberalization and economic growth collapse, the United States will suffer crippling consequences.
In today’s highly globalized world economy, so much of the economic health of the United States — our low inflation, high profits, and cheap credit — rests upon China’s economic growth and its massive investment in the United States. A great deal has been said about the economic and military threat China poses. But rather than provoking China with the military hawkishness of recent years and resisting Chinese economic supremacy with the saber rattling of protectionist antitrade policies — twenty such bills have been introduced in Congress in just the last year — the United States must build a strong relationship that will foster China’s transition from an antiquated Communist state beset with profound problems to a fully modern, enlightened, and open society. Doing so will require understanding and engagement, not enmity and suspicion.
China’s current economic model, Hutton explains, is unsustainable, premised as it is on the myriad contradictions and dysfunctions of an authoritarian state attempting to control an economy in its transition to capitalism. If the twenty-first century is to be the China century, the Chinese will have to embrace the features of modern Western nations that have spurred the political stability and economic power of the United States and Europe: the rule of law, an independent judiciary, freedom of the press, and authentic representative government that is accountable to the people. Whether or not China does so rests in large part on how well the United States manages the relationship and persuades the Chinese of the virtues of an open, enlightened democratic system. The danger is that fearmongering will intensify animosities, leading both countries down a path of peril.
Turning conventional wisdom on its head, this brilliantly argued book is vital reading at a crucial juncture in world affairs.
Customer Reviews
Whats the big deal?:
As an American peasant, who has never taken a course in economics, I was curious about, What is all the todo about China? What is Chinas history that I would understand them better? How bad is the huge differential in GDP really hurting our economy? Whats the REAL chance of my job going over seas? Should I truely despise WalMart? Why don’t we just with-draw all our troops, and to hell with the rest of the world?
To say Mr. Huttons book is comprehensive, is like saying the Grand Canyon is Big. He made many good points, and seemed to make alot of sense to my un-trained mind. I will definately have to re-read it again to gain the full benefit.
Did he answer all my questions? Yes and a whole lot more. I highly recommend his book to any who would ask the hard questions.
Am I now fully educated on the subject? No. But, am I now a part of the enlightenment…..definately.
Left of Center:
This book provides an interesting description of China’s many problems and offers a set of policies designed to counter what threatens to be the globe’s most pressing set of conflicts. For an alternative view, see my own book The Coming China Wars: Where They Will Be Fought and How They Can Be Won
enjoying this immensely:
So happy this wasn’t another paeon to chinese industrial invincibility like china inc. (which was ridiculously glowing bizlit).
I’m not with Hutton on all his assumptions– such as the sweeping assertion that social mobility is decreasing in the west–huh?– but he’s honest and takes a principled, methodological approach in his analysis i like.
i will search out other hutton titles now!
Brilliant analysis of how the United States should proceed in our relations with China.:
I think it is fair to say that the conventional wisdom is that the United States and China are on a collision course. John J. Mearsheimer, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago summarizes this point of view this way; “China and the United States are destined to clash militarily and the United States has an interest to do all it can to forestall China’s becoming economically rich enough to challenge it.” Author Will Hutton vehemently disagrees with this point of view. In “The Writing On The Wall” Hutton presents a methodical, logical and compelling case for the United States to pursue policies that will only encourage the continued and inevitable modernization of China. Hutton’s thoughtful and convincing analysis of the situation certainly turns conventional wisdom on its head.
According to Hutton, the continued mercurial growth of the Chinese economy is simply unsustainable given the current policies being pursued by the Communists who are still in charge in China. There is simply no way that the policies and political environment favored by those who are currently in power in Beijing can mesh with the continued and sustained economic growth that China is seeking. Time and again Hutton points to the nearly total lack of what he terms “soft” infrastructure as the primary reason why current Chinese policy is doomed to failure. This rather monolithic economic system lacks such fundamental cornerstones as a legitmate banking system, a free press and the ability of workers to organize. Add to that the fact that most major industries are still SOE (state owned enterprises) and it is plain to see why the major flaws in the Chinese economy are almost certain to rear their ugly heads in the near future with potentially devasting consequences for us all. And there are a whole host of other systemic problems with the Chinese economy that time does not permit me to list here. Hutton argues vigarously that the United States and the EU should be encouraging the Chinese to move away from those policies that will ultimately hold them back.
I found “The Writing On The Wall” to be a particularly well written and equally well documented book. Will Hutton avoids a lot of technical jargon and presents his case in clear, easy to understand language. Based on my limited knowledge of China prior to reading this book I would have probably come down on the side of Professor Mearsheimer. I thought that conflict with China was a probably a foregone conclusion. But Will Hutton has convinced me of the wisdom of encouraging China to modernize and perhaps even in making some changes in the way we do business ourselves. “The Writing On The Wall” is an extremely thought provoking book and one that I can very highly recommend!
Got better as it went on:
Reading the introductory first chapter I was worried that Hutton’s reputation for careful analysis may have left him, as he appeared to offer an overly simple thesis and an embrace of the United States’ system of government that was too uncritcal.
Thankfully that chapter is misleading as Hutton leads his readers through a detailed analysis of China’s economy that is equal parts illuminating and disturbing, and begins to build explanation on his desire to see US-style enlightenment institutions develop in China, while being very open about the fact that several of those institutions are in severe decline within the USA.
Some of that coverage of the USA, its history, institutions and current situation, feels like it would have made sense as a separate book, slimming down this volume considerably and potentially making the material much more accessible for those with limited time. But the intertwined themes do make sense and the reader is considerably better placed to judge the material when we have both parts together.
At times there is certainly still a sense that Hutton is calling for a form of cultural imperialism. The merits of the institutions he outlines are clear, but they have grown out of a lengthy philosophical tradition which China does not share and it is vital that any such institutions are contextualised if they are to succeed in China.
