20th century: century of coal
As Professor Smil notes: “The common perception is that the 19th century was dominated by coal, the 20th century by oil.” But as a matter of fact, that is not the case at all. As the world has been using more and more energy for its needs, in relative terms today we use more coal than during the energy crisis of the seventies. At the moment coal still generates 40% of the worlds electricity (China: 70%, India: 50%). So opposed to common perception the 19th century was the century of wood and the 20th of coal. Considering the millenia long duration of the wooden era, it is hard to believe that we will succeed in replacing our current energy infrastructure with a new sustainable one in just some 10 years time. In Smil’s words: “Such romanticism […] is delusional […] none of the promises for greatly accelerated energy transitions will be kept”.

The road to sustainability
Not to say that we should stop any transition we are on today, but we should be aware that it will not happen in short time: replacing the worlds energy structure is such a fundamentel change that it will take a lot more time. Why is that important? Well, it shows how difficult the task at hand is. It’s in the nature of human beings not to want to change at all, they’d rather stay in their comfort zones. For the kind of transition to occur that most discussions on sustainability focus on people will have to leave those comfort zones, and be confronted with changes that seem to make things worse rather than better. If the steps are to great no one will take a leap and change: fundamental change is always harder than small change.

We therefor believe it is impossible to transform from a ‘black economy’ into a ‘green economy’. There are many steps in between that transition. As I’ve argued before: it is those little steps and the insight that goes with it that will drive the coming years. The debate should not be as much about where to get to, but on how to get there. We will transform into a grey economy first before we enter the century of green. And there are many alternatives and possibilities out there that are not green, but that neither are black. At the moment all those initiatives are seen as evil in the eyes of the true green-thinker, but those steps might in fact be a nessecity to change. There’s a road leading to a sustainable world and it’s time we start thinking about that road instead of the destination.

Shock therapy?
However, there’s always an however isn’t there, external shocks might induce so much pain that the change will be accelerated. Interestingly in the current crisis, with all the remarks being made on how to ’save the economy’, I’ve heard quite a few times already, that it might in fact take a long and lasting, painful downturn (rather years than months, maybe even decades) for a real change (as promised by president elect Obama) to take root. So, maybe we’ve entered a time of shock therapy and we will gain some traction and succeed in transforming in a decade…