Varying from Hegemonic-cycles, Kondrativ-waves to Perez innovation-curves, we have been studying these theories for their predictive capacity. Not only as a framework to select in which phase we are but also to maybe discover something about rythm? Last week we added Neil Howe to that list with his 4th Turning or generation-cycle theory. The current crisis brings much debate on this subject especially wether this ‘recession’ is part of a (kutznets) business-cycle or if it might be a clash of cycles? To further understand this issue I’m doing quite some research on cycle-theories and wanted to share the following nuance: There are several kinds of theories of history have been prominent in recent discussions ending theories, wave theories, and cycle theories.The ending theories identify ages with distinguishing features that have come to an end or will come to an end and will not recur. The distinguishing features may be dominance by one nation, the prevalence of a particular social system, or the pervasiveness of a certain technology. The Roman Empire came to an end, feudalism came to an end, and some say that the Industrial Age is coming to an end. These periods will not come back. There may or may not be common features that bring ages to an end. There may or may not be a predictable sequence of ages, as in the Marxist theory that feudalism leads to capitalism and capitalism leads to socialism–a theory that, so far, seems to have been erroneous. The most ambitious of the recent ending theories is the theory of the end of history, advanced by Francis Fukuyama.
Wave theories postulate the recurrence of phases with similar characteristics. Thus, History goes A-B, A-B or A-B-C, A-B-C. All the A’s have similar features that distinguish them from the Bs or Cs. But the As may be of quite different lengths from each other, and so may the Bs and Cs, and they may have their distinguishing features to different degrees. A recent wave theory is that propounded by David Hackett Fisher. He finds in history long waves of inflation, each followed by a crisis followed by a period of equilibrium followed by another wave of inflation, and so on.
Cycle theories, unlike wave theories, suggest that the phases of history are of roughly similar duration. That permits prediction of the remaining duration of the present phase and the coming of the next phase. A simple historical cycle consists of alternating phases of political activism followed by political passivity. Arthur Schlesinger Jr., is the leading exponent of this idea, which was first put forward by his father. A more complex cycle is described by William Strauss and Neil Howe. They visualize a four-phase cycle. These phases are 1) an era of strengthening institutions, 2) an era of spiritual awakening, 3) an era of weakening institutions, and 4) an era of crisis. The entire four-phase cycle is believed to last about 80 years.
How about Saw-Tooth theories? i.e slow rise and abrupt falls. Each iteraction represents gradual development. and then rapid decline. (Rise and fall of empires, etc). Cynics would say that each iteration believed itself to be intrinsicly better than anything that had gone before, but failed to learn from them. Discuss.
Arjan: where can we see more of your research?
Michel Bauwens, p2pfoundation.net